The Dreams of Europe. The Dreams of Democracy. The Dreams of Freedom

A successful resolution of a severe political crisis requires immediate response, negotiation and a compromise among the political leaders. Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn’t have it - authoritarianism has taken over. And we are the Ukrainians and cannot keep quite. This letter is a call to Europe for help, because Ukraine is in terror and tragedy. It should no longer be a collective television watching only, as the incidents of the current severe intimidation are repeating the country’s history of terror in the 1930’s.

By Olena Denysyuk and Anastasia Erichsen

Photo by Olga Starostina

You might be asking who is right and who is wrong in the recent Ukrainian protests that turned deadly last week.  On the one side of the “front”, there are angry, desperate people with different social backgrounds and political views from various regions of Ukraine including Kievans, who came out to fight for their basic human rights. On the other side, there are thousands of governmental agents – internal military forces, police officers and the riot police Berkut. Known as the government tool for political repressions, Berkut forces are trained to suppress the uprising and have demonstrated the most brutal behavior such as cruel beatings, torturing, shooting directly at journalists and killing at least two protesters after firing bullets at them. Being paid very well Berkut is there voluntarily, while the internal military troops are there due to their military obligation. Hence, they are obliged to execute orders by law and if they change sides, they will be at risk of being sent to jail turning into objects of political repressions.   

Big Data Opportunities – Are We There Yet? (Part 2)

Decision making based on the data from the social media can be biased, because the data do not capture what the decision makers need to minimize their own biases. The Big Data is biased and noisy. This is a source of big mistakes, risks and uncertainties.

By Olena Denysyuk

(for part 1, see here)

There is a new and big buzz-word is bubbling in many diversities of blogosphere, academics, forums and journalism, social influencers. The big word is BIG DATA (not just data, but BIG data). And the thinking is that the big data can give us BIG OPPORTUNITIES, and even visions to revolutionize the way we “stare” into the future. To me, there is a slight risk that we are moving towards wishful thinking, once again. Why wishful thinking? Well, the risks and uncertainties around big data are being underestimated, once again. We always had and will have a need in socially- sharing -thinking about something positive:  a belief that there is something that will bring us new opportunities; a new era towards a better future. And now all stare at big data bright future.

I have already mentioned, that the big data makes us even blinder to something potential, different, and not recorded (forecasting and technical uncertainties), so no matter which angle I would like to focus on when writing about big data, something else data had/has/will always have on its challenging side: the uncertainty generated by the human factor and by….big data itself.

But first allow me to mention what are these big opportunities I would like to focus on.

Strategic Improvements

The Uncertainties of Big Data (Part 1)

We might be on the beginning on the big data “epoch”. There are certainly great opportunities not only for business decision makers, but also for those, who like to work with big analytics. But the forecasting uncertainties are NOT eliminated by big data. In fact, the big data makes us even blinder to something potential, different, and not recorded.  This is a source if big boundaries, limits and diminished opportunities.

By Olena Denysyuk

Isn’t fun to be able to predict the future and change the direction of a business? Not the way the clairvoyants do, but like economists/ data analysts do. There are no big differences in these 2 groups, some would say. Maybe, it’s right. Nobody can see the next 10 years.  A 10-year business forecast is a good structuring tool, but as seeing- into-the- future tool, there is not so much value in it. Sadly.

But there should be some underlying reasoning, which these two groups share, since they share the idea of prophecy.

The later one predict the future (form the opinions, make the decisions) basing any judgment on data, technical/statistical/accounting/graphical. The former one predicts the future…well… I guess they have their own access to data they need: social media, Google among others.  No matter what analytics you go after in the realm of predicting the future, data is the central component.

So the word” data” is not new…     

Not only democratic values should be promoted, they should be helped to get implemented!

The successful resolution of the severe political crisis requires simple and clear goals and rules that everyone understands. Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn’t have them - authoritarianism has taken over. And we are the Ukrainians and cannot keep quite. This letter is a call to Europe for help, because Ukraine is in tragedy. It should no longer be a collective television watching only!

By Olena Denysyuk and Anastasia Erichsen

Photo by Olga Starostina

The uprising of Ukrainians during the last three weeks has been a moment of celebration. It’s the celebration of individual rights and democracy, the celebration of hope and values, which Europe stands for. Hundreds of thousands of people have peacefully protested against the remnants of the totalitarian regime of the last century. The people’s dream and hope of being a truly European and democratic country for the upcoming 10th year anniversary of the Orange Revolution was about to become true.

WHAT DOES CREATE TRENDS?:About the book by Malcom Gladwell, "The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make Big Difference "

Malcom Gladwell, "The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make Big Difference "


Sometimes small things can make big differences. All you have to do is find the hidden buttons to these small things, which actually have the power to act big. Let’s look at the case of epidemics, let’s find the hidden mechanisms that originate and sustain the trends and social epidemics.

By Olena Denysyuk

 I have often been asking myself, why do we love to follow trends, that, at first glance, we might not like? But which, we might like it later?

 

In this regard, I chose to read the book  by Malcom Gladwell, "The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make Big Difference ", a book  about what makes ideas infectious, what messages can spread the ideas, and how to start and sustain social epidemics and trends. It didn’t answer exactly my question.  

 

 

And when I read the book, I was thinking of giving it only 2 stars on Goodreads. But by reaching the end, anyway, it earned one extra star.   

With all respect to journalism, I was initially a little disappointed that a book about trends/epidemics (sociology, in broader terms) was written by a journalist. I might have been spoiled by the most intelligent book by Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", as it was written by an expert. He managed to deliver his study of psychology and sociology not only reliably, but also amusingly. 

 

It's not that there is something wrong with Gladwell’s ideas and hypothesis, but I presume I am a bit critical towards his choice of arguments and research material-some of it seems weak to me, and he even sharpened some of it to fit into his own ideas. So I wonder why the book was so recommended by so many clever people.

 

 It's not that ORIGINAL, NEITHEIR ACADEMICALLY nor SCIENTIFICALLY. Here, the book had lost one star.

 

But soon after, I realized, it is rather good entertaining book - within the fields of marketing, but not human behavior or economics, as I originally thought it would be. And the book is even a bit thought-provoking and brain-teasing, I admit. The lost star found its way back!  

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (Review and Reflections) OR HOW TO THINK OUT OF THE BOX?

What caused the death of Nicolae Ceaușescu. Poverty? Dictatorship? Ignorance towards his people?  What do you think? A little hint: In 1966, one year after Ceaușescu had become the Communist dictator of Romania, he made abortion illegal in order to increase the population.

By Olena Denysyuk

The reform had an effect: within one year of abortion ban, the Romanian birth rate had doubled. The lives of these babies were miserable, being born by poor and young mothers, who would otherwise have chosen abortion. These babies were more likely to become criminals. On Christmas Day of 1989, Ceaușescu learned from his mistakes the hard way. With a bullet to the head. From the people of his nation, tired of living in poverty. People, who probably wouldn’t be born if not for the abortion ban- the ban that gave him a bullet to the head- NOT the poverty, NOT the ignorance. The brutal mistake of 1966, which he was not prepared for.

This is one of Freakonomics’ examples of novel thinking- by looking deeper, finding the root of the cause, rather than focusing on generally accepted truth. This is a case of how to think out of the box.

So what is Feakonomics about?

Interest Rate: Money with a Discount Harms the Economy More Than Necessary

The European Central Bank, followed by Danmark’s Nationalbank, has started pushing interest rate down with primary goal to stimulate the economy growth in the euro zone and Denmark.  However, loose monetary policy in time of crisis can also have a negative effect: it stimulates over-pessimism, under-investment and high unemployment.

By Olena Denysyuk

On 2 May 2013, The European Central Bank has announces that “The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 0, 25 percentage points to 0.50%, starting from the operation to be settled on 8 May 2013.”  The next day, Denmarks Nationalbank has announced a reduction by 0, 10 percentage point and therefore reaching a new record low: in attempt to pull the euro economy out of the recession (seen from the graph).

 I fear a rather damaging – more than fixing- effect on the economy.